Foseti is alarmed that 43% of white-collar American women between ages 33 and 46 have never had a child.
Of course, this is a very large age-bracket, and many of the women in their 30s may yet have children. Age 33 is quite young, yet, here in the 2010s. I am interested in final fertility, i.e. how many children women have had by age 45, the end of their reproductive lives.
— — —
Some investigation into the Census data tells me this:
3-in-10 Generation-X white women
will never have a white child
The U.S. Census Bureau reports that as of June 2010, 20.6% of white non-Hispanic women born between June 1965 and May 1970 — the early Generation-Xers — have never had a child. They are childless, and almost all will remain so, considering their ages (40-44 at time of Census). (See tables 1 and 7 in the dataset “Fertility of American Women: 2010 – Detailed Tables”). [Sidenote: Of those 40-44-year-old white women who have had children, 22% have one child, 44% have two children, 24% have three children, 7% have four children, 3% have more than four children.]
Now, as only ~89% of the babies born in the past decade to white mothers were fathered by white men [see racehist for documentation on this], this means that only ~71% of white women born in the late 1960s have had white children. {100-[(79.4 who have had children*.89 to white fathers)]=70.7}.
So, nearly three in ten have removed their genes from the white-American genepool.
Dysgenics
Foseti, in his original post, uses the word “dysgenic”, thereby invoking a sense that the lower elements of the population are outbreeding the higher and more talented elements. Eeach new generation, then, being of poorer-quality, on average, than its parent generation. This is a perennial fear. See here:
Dysgenics in 20th-century Greece, from Richard Lynn
Is the same thing happening in the USA? I have compiled a little table to summarize the relevant Census data.
Fertility and Education, Census 2010
So, yes, smarter women are certainly being outbred by less-intelligent women, but nothing like the palpable and disturbingly-dysgenic figures from 1950s-Greece cited above.
Hail To You 
Something noticeable among my female cohorts is the number of adoptions. I wonder if breaking out adoptions would change the numbers. I suppose the final would be some kind of “how many women pass their genetic material into the future.”
Age 33 is NOT young for child bearing purposes. We really need women to start having babies as soon as they can.
RSF,
As best I can tell, the Census dataset in question counts children a woman has herself borne, so adoptions are already excluded, at least in theory. What is unclear to me is how the data is collected. If it is based on self-reporting, some adoptions may have slipped in after all, but I doubt it has much of an effect.
Incidentally, what sort of children are the women that you refer to adopting? I do wonder about the eugenic/dysgenic effects of adoption, in general, even putting aside racial factors.
Roughly 1/3 the adoptions are foreign children, 2/3 a standard home grown white kid. Of the foreign, I’m thinking of one from Romania, and one from Mali.
From what I’ve seen of adoption in my extended community, I agree that it tends towards dysgenic. Down the road from me, an adopted kid (now an adult) is facing life in prison for child porn. Adopted kids around here just tend to be dysfunctional/not high achievers even when placed with families whose extended families show a track record of raising successful kids. I can’t help but think kids are up for adoption partly because they have a chaotic genetic past.
“When adopted children grow up, they resemble their biological parents more closely than their adoptive parents in IQ.” (From a review of Richard Lynn’s Dysgenics).
Have you seen this recent study:
“Black-White Marriages Increased Rapidly Since 1980, Study Finds”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/09/110915084151.htm
Is it reliable?
So, nearly three in ten have removed their genes from the white-American genepool.
This is devastating. It’s comparable to the “kill rates” from mass war or severe plague, isn’t it? Perhaps even worse considering that women and their genes tend to survive more than men.
A certain percentage of women will always fail to reproduce, but it is usually more like 10-15%
For the UK:
I wonder if the 1923 cohort had an artificially-high childless rate due to the war (300,000 young British men killed at arms, heavily of the 1923 age-bracket).
Have you looked at the figures for white male fertility?
Mark,
Two must play the game, right?
The all important “white-female mother with white-male father” fertility metric suggests that “white” TFR in the USA is 1.6-1.7 — which is not bad, compared to much of Europe.
Racehist has the stats up on outbreeding patterns for white males and females for 2005. I’ll reproduce them here:
Although these numbers suggest that white-women are more likely to outbreed, in fact — from a eugenic standpoint — it is OK, as those 10-11% of white women are apparently significantly lower ‘quality’, on the whole. (See link for documentation on that).
Do you have an idea of what percentage of white men are having their genes removed from the white-American genepool?
Mark:
I don’t have statistics on that, but logically, the failure-to-pass-on-genes rate for men is always higher (assuming equal numbers of men and women), because some men have children by more than one woman.
Imagine a low-fertility monogamous society consisting of exactly 100 men and 100 women.
– 29 of the women do not procreate. [Thus, 29 of the men are shut out from procreation].
– 5 of the men have children, divorce, remarry, and have children by another woman. [Thus, 5 more men are shut out from procreation]
Total women not procreating: 29.
Total men not procreating: 34.
One big x-factor, of course, is that men’s reproductive capacity does not end by 45.
From Mark’s link: “”Our results point to better race relations in 2008 than 1980, but we still have a way to go,” Qian said. “The racial boundary is blurred, but it is still there.””
Assumption here is that marrying outside your race equals better race relations, when maybe the opposite is true.
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Because of regression to the mean it is not the case that smarter women are having uniformly smart children.
The best way to shift the population mean upwards would be to sterilize those with IQs below 100 🙂
However, I guess that those less-than-intelligent women who are mating with blacks are hastening the disappearance of their lineages …
“Regression to the Mean”, I’ve always felt, is absolutely ripe for Reductio ad Absurdum. A strict application of RttM would mean that no human group would ever advance, at all. How can higher-IQ be selected for?, if children of high-IQ parents will just “regress to the mean” and be back to square one. See what I mean?
Francis Galton, in his first work on eugenics, proved that gifted people invariably come from gifted families. It’s common sense.
Where RttM applies, it does so for the case of true outliers, and on an individual level. The rare pair of IQ 150-ers, from families that are more in the 110-130s range, will unlikely have a child in that range, because they are both anomalies. The child will clearly still be talented.
See this comment by a commenter named David:
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