Against the Corona-Panic, Part XV: The coronavirus death curves in Stay-Open Sweden and the Stay-Locked-Down USA are remarkably similar over four months, discrediting lockdown-pushers

For earlier entries “Against the Corona Panic,” see:
Parts One, Two, Three, Four, Five, Six, Seven,
Eight, Nine, Ten, Eleven, Twelve, Thirteen,
Fourteen, Fifteen

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Was the lockdown necessary? Sweden continues to show, No, it wasn’t. Regardless of strategy used, the epidemic curves generally look the same.

I recently noticed, in passing, that the shape of the corona-death curves for Sweden and the USA were very similar. I hadn’t seen anyone graph them together on the same scale (on a per capita basis), so I did it. The graph is above.

They really are remarkably similar, aren’t they? The two curves show the same rise; peaks coming at the same time and reaching the same magnitude; sustained declines also at the same time and magnitude.

Despite it all, the flu epidemic runs its course. Despite all the huff and the fluff, the normal epidemic curves proceed as they always do, making the whole Lockdown effort a sad and tragic farce. Further comments on similarities and differences follow below.

[Update: Federalist raises a good objection to this graph the comments. Viewed alone, some might think: “See? The US curve is lower. That proves the lockdown was a good idea.” The point is, both are something like 25x to 50x below the predictions made in mid-March that justified the lockdowns. Regardless of strategy employed, both ended up following the same, low curve, peaking in late flu-season and tailing off by late spring. See my reply. Both Sweden and US death curves are dwarfed by the prediction curves.]

This USA vs. Sweden graph is a new one in this series, so I am leading with it here. Several other of the running Sweden graphs I’ve been running were updated for this post (Deaths and ICU-intakes; all-cause mortality; actual deaths vs. the predictions) and the four updated graphs and comments on them follow below.

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Sweden was Right; the Media was Wrong

The pro-Panic side has always had those loudly insisting there was going to be a big surge in deaths in Sweden, any time now. Right around the corner, inevitable, just you wait! As if divine punishment for corona-blasphemy. To paraphrase quote a Swede for the occasion, How dare they not to lock down (Greta Thunberg, 2019). The media naturally also pushed this, or some implicit version of it.

Here was one CoronaPanic-pusher, speaking two months ago (April 29), stringing people along that his foretold apocalypse was just delayed, that’s all:

No big surge ever came.

For some reason I still see people pushing “deaths are about to mushroom in Sweden!” even now in late June, which just seems embarrassing. And yet they still run the show. The Corona Coup-d’Etat regime remains, and those pushing visions of doom unmoored from reality and more in line with religion remain in positions of relative prestige.

In the realm of evidence, absolutely nothing is on the side of the pro-Panic forces and the epidemic curves continue to complete themselves with the usual plodding dignity, regardless of what government responses were used or how much GDP damage Corona-Demagogues in elected office were willing to do.

The observed/actual/real-world data, not anybody’s models now, has proved Sweden’s no-shutdown strategy was right since mid-April has been all but indisputable since early May at the very latest, nearly two months ago. By mid- and late-April, we were able to grasp of the maximum extent of the epidemic and observe the passing of the peak. Once we could feel out the peak and see the decline path begin — well, everything else that has occurred could have been predicted, in outline. But with Corona, all that is out the window. (Remember: “We’ve never seen anything like this!” Oh, yes, we have. Several times a decade, in most places.)

The course of the epidemic in Sweden is interesting in itself. The surprise is when we run the per capita comparison with the US.

The US caved into the panic, imposed devastating shutdowns and lockdowns, the neew corona junta used its influence the world over to intimidate the high and the low to Fear the Virus. And for what? For a slightly lower death curve some of the time than Sweden had, which may not end up any different in the end? A flu season 1.5x as bad as usual, instead of 1.6x as bad? That was worth destroying the economy? Are we insane?

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There was an almost total, lockstep nature to this, which was (and remains, as it is ongoing) disturbing.

I wouldn’t have believed it had someone told it all to me on Christmas Day 2019. Nice story there, but we aren’t nearly that irrational, we’d say.

It was all surreal. We (they) became this:

The people depicted in this cartoon, what would they think/say/do when presented with the data on Sweden and the fact that the epidemic in the USA followed effectively the exact same path?

Most of them tune it out. They tuned out (or “had tuned out for them”) the same when the experts were waving their arms frantically to get attention to this very fact back in April.

Some of them, no doubt, don’t believe it at all because it’s not what the media they consume — and which sets the narratives that control their lives — tells them.

Many of them are full-on members of the Corona-Cult and so will not be reachable by rational argument no matter what.

And some know it’s all, effectively, a hoax but want to push it anyway to make sure Trump is defeated, or for some other political-demagogic or personal reason(s).

What people do know, or rather have been trained to feel in the Corona Dispensation, is that those who die positive for this one virus, few though they may be, are truly VIPs:

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The Corona-Panic defeated in four graphs

We can tell a story in four graphs on why the lockdowns were a mistake, an international chain reaction of terrible policy-making driven by (a media-directed) Panic. We can prove it now, as we have been able to since April, but more data is always welcome.

  • Graph 1: The magnitude of the epidemic in Sweden (observed data) via ICU intake and Deaths curves;
  • Graph 2: All-cause mortality for Sweden for the coronavirus period;
  • Graph 3: Sweden’s deaths curve against the influential Neil “millions of deaths” Ferguson projections, released like a poison cloud onto the world on March 16;
  • Graph 4: Deaths per capita per day, Sweden vs. the USA (posted above).

All of these are as of the June 28 updates.

Four months into the epidemic, what we see is mundane, which is to say a rather typical flu epidemic with the usual curves. There remains nothing unusual about this virus. All flu viruses, if tracked like this, would show the same curves. This is a strong flu strain of the kind every living adult has seen multiple times.

Anyway, onto the graphs:

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(Graph 1.) The Deaths and the ICU-intake Curves for Sweden

First, the zoomed-in graph of the epidemic in Sweden along the two relevant curves:

Blue is the coronavirus-positive Deaths curve. Red the ICU intakes curve.

The ICU-intakes curve predicts the movement of the Deaths curve. Any potential rise on the blue Deaths curve is to be preceded by a rise in the ICU curve, so do not let anyone con you into thinking the Deaths curve is going to spike anytime soon.

ICU-intake data also gets finalized sooner than Deaths (for understandable reasons), and there remains no sign at all of ICU-intakes spiking. As such, anyone still predicting a spike in deaths in Sweden is misinformed or lying.

Much else can still be said for the exact reasons Sweden’s curves look exactly the way they do. The early spike, which looks like a little mound on top of a larger hill, I suspect is the Stockholm nursing home deaths. Each little plateau, I suspect, represents the regular circulation of the virus in another particular region: Breakthrough/spread/circulation preceded it by a period of weeks, and the deaths bunch up. Eventually there were no large areas left. Herd immunity meant the epidemic was over in most places.

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(Graph 2.) All-Cause Mortality in Sweden, March to June 2020

Here is the all-cause mortality graph for the same period as depicted in Graph 1 (from Part XIV). The week beginning March 1 is Week 10:

And the latest update for Sweden, including the non-finalized data for Weeks 24 and 25:

(This is technically two graphs, but the second one is just the extension of the first by two weeks; call it 2a and 2b.)

As you see, Sweden is cruising along the upper-end of the normal range for Weeks 22 to 25. (May 24 to June 20). This four-week period comes in at cumulative +10.6 z-scores, or +2.65 average per week.

A close look at daily deaths suggest the turning point is May 23, as I discussed in the Sweden section of Part XIV on all-cause mortality. The short version of it is that any week with about <40 or <35 corona-positive deaths/10m/day will likely end up in or near the normal range, all else equal — or so the data suggests. This is also suggested in the US all-cause mortality data, which puts the US back in the normal range also in late May (see Graph 4‘s heavy black horizontal line for about where this threshold is.)

Granted, there is always some kind of normal fluctuation, but the general pattern holds.

Here are Sweden’s weekly all-cause mortality excess z-scores with per capita deaths (normal range is -2 to +2 z-scores; Substantial Increase is above +4 z-scores):

  • Week 22 [+1.7 z-scores] averaged 38 corona-positive deaths/10m/day;
  • Week 23 [+3.7 z-scores] averaged 34 corona-positive deaths/10m/day;
  • Week 24 [+2.9 z-scores] averaged 31 corona-positive deaths/10m/day;
  • Week 25 [+2.3 z-scores] averaged 19 corona-positive deaths/10m/day

(Death data not yet final for Week 25; it will rise above that ’19.’)

Teasing out the threshold at which corona-positive deaths push all-cause mortality above the normal range can be done by comparing the corona-deaths curve with the all-cause mortality deaths curve. It is likely something in the 30s/10m/day. I use this in the newest graph, USA vs. Sweden per capita, to put those numbers in perspective.

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(Graph 3.) Revisiting Doctor Frankensson’s Monster

Next up, the same blue Deaths curve as above in Graph 1, but this time graphed against the Imperial College Neil Ferguson (“Doctor Frankensson“) projection curves.

Recall that Ferguson released his wild, “millions of deaths” predictions on March 16, which many see as decisive in causing the UK, US, and country after country after them to cave into the Panic, to one degree or another.

That graph alone is enough to discredit the Lockdown-pushers.

The pro-Panic side was simply wrong; Sweden was fine. It easily weathered a usual strong flu epidemic. Sweden’s nursing homes were the vast majority of the deaths; there simply never was a general threat here.

[Update: Comments by Federalist and Peak Stupidity lead to the insight that Graph 3 and Graph 4 may be conceptually combined. The ‘takeaway’ is that both US and Sweden curves are very low. The prediction curves towering over them. The Sweden curve is not appreciably different than the US curve despite the big gap in responses.]

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(Graph 4.) “The coup de grace.” The USA vs. Sweden: Coronavirus curves very similar despite it all

Lastly, Corona-deaths in Sweden vs. the USA, per capita, graphed over four months.

The blue is again the same blue line as used above (Graph 1) and as graphed against the wild Neil Frankensson predictions (Graph 3). In this graph I also incorporate the findings from Graph 2 and its discussion. This is not a precise line (there are going to be natural fluctuations) but the true “normal range threshold” line will not be too far off. I find this line helpful to view the epidemic in proper context.

I think this the coup de grace against the Panic, if there ever was one, especially combined with Graph 3.

As already remarked at the top of this post, the two curves are remarkably similar. Given the enormous gap in responses, one can be forgiven for being surprised at this.

Some observations:

  • The peaks come at about the same time (mid-April);
  • The peaks reach almost exactly the same height (in the 90s per 10m-pop. per day);
  • During the long decline period, deaths track each other remarkably well, generally within 10 deaths per 10 million population per day.
  • The two countries were back below the proposed normal-range threshold within a week of each other in mid-late May.

Given that Sweden and the US had such very different mitigation strategies, one has to do some serious straw-grasping to come up with any meaningful differences in these curves. What we are left with is that the demagogues who pushed the lockdowns were wrong. that did not result in a Deaths curve any different than what a No-Lockdown policy would have been.

Here are the differences:

  • Cumulative deaths are modestly higher in Sweden (5060/10m pop.) than in the USA (3670/10m pop.). There are a variety of possible explanations for this but here is one that doesn’t get too technical:
  • Sweden’s corona-deaths curve starts earlier. Sweden broke past the 40 deaths/10m pop./day threshold by March 29, while for the USA it would be April 6, nine days later.

Indications are the virus began circulating in Europe earlier anyway. The dataset is not proper for precise, day-to-day comparisons because the US data is based on “date death was reported” while Sweden’s is based on “date person died.” In practice and in reality, there should not be regular jumps/waves in the data like that. The US curve should be smoothed out even more than my five-day-average does and moved somewhat to the left to correct for this.

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What should we have done?

Knowing what we know now, of course the US should never have pulled the lockdown trigger. Having done so in mid-March, it should have rapidly re-opened once more information was in.

Continuing the disruptions, for month after month unnecessarily triggered a major recession; hurt millions for no real gain; imposed endless social disruptions; triggered a bizarre political cult outbreak and riots; caused a coming crash in the birth rate; shocking and sudden defeats for basic political freedoms; major defeats for churches and small businesses; thousands of unnecessary, near-term Panic-induced deaths; and far worse health outcomes, for years to come (due to recession) which will, of course, get no media attention from the bloodthirsty CoronaPanic-pushers.

The victims of the Panic. Almost all of us, to one degree or another, including the misguided but generally good people on the pro-Panic side, are the victims. All will suffer in quiet despair in some way, and already have, with more to come. This was all so unnecessary that it boggles the mind.

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Will anything convince the pro-Panic side?

A brief look back over the Corona-Panic over the past several months.

In March and into April, I believed the key to the puzzle was randomized population studies that would show how widespread the virus really was, and which would show that it was not an apocalypse virus after all. This was already highly likely by mid-March from the earliest data, but the studies hadn’t been done yet.

Then is started happening: From all over the world, studies started coming out showing fatality rates in the range of a strong flu strain. I was sure the corner would be turned. To my surprise, people reacted negatively to these studies, either ignoring them or attacking them. The narrative-shapers continued pushing what they always had. The pro-Panic side had pulled off a coup d’etat and was not letting go.

By mid-April, I realized that many even normally rational people weren’t going to be persuaded by these academic studies. They were deeply emotionally committed to the Panic (see Part XII, Corona as Religious Cult). In April the data was steadily discredited the Panic, defeating it on really all fronts. People continued to grasp onto the Panic. I started to think “Sweden is the key.” Non-specialists might not be convinced by academic studies, but surely they would be convinced by actual, observed, real-world data out of a country that never shut down. If there was no “millions of deaths” equivalent in Sweden, surely that would be decisive in defeating the Panic, stopping the bleeding, and swiftly re-opening, as we should have in Easter.

(Had Trump been a stronger leader, he would have stuck to the Easter reopening plan. That they forced him off of it shows he is not in control of his own administration, and maybe never has been.)

Looking back on the Panic, I do think it makes a compelling case for

I have tracked the coronavirus epidemic curves in Sweden closely since April.

By mid and especially late April, it was clear Sweden’s deaths curve had reached its peak (and a somewhat artificially high one it was, in that many of those deaths were to due to systematic failures by refugee staff in Stockholm nursing homes; nursing homes elsewhere in Sweden got better flu epidemic protections).

Now, by late June, the epidemic curves have all but completed themselves. The epidemic in Sweden ends up being No Big Deal, unlikely to cause a full-year mortality spike worthy of particular note on its own terms (see Part XI). No one should have locked down; slowly, they will all have to admit we of the anti-Panic side were right. History will.

The IMHE (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation)’s influential modelling, which at one time pushed the same pro-Panic line as the discredit Neil Ferguson, now admits the final scope of the corona-positive deaths in Sweden will be 5,750, which was predicted here in early May. I predicted, based on the nature of the Deaths curve and the rules o these things, 5,750 in a comment to a post here, comment dated May 10.

The ballpark (somewhere in the 5000 +/- several thousand) was knowable already by mid-April and was repeatedly predicted on these pages (see especially Part VII and Part XI)

Deaths in this range mean Sweden has gone through a flu wave, comparable to those it sees regularly, and there will be no full-year mortality rise.

Will this matter to anyone still on the pro-Panic side, that coalition of true-believers, media-believers, fanatics, cultists, misanthropes, demagogues, and political or personal agenda-pushers? They continue to push for all manner of shutdowns and disruptions, and now that the anti-racism cult has faded after several weeks of activity, they are back pushing Corona.

It’s remarkable that they can do this against every piece of evidence we have.

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18 Responses to Against the Corona-Panic, Part XV: The coronavirus death curves in Stay-Open Sweden and the Stay-Locked-Down USA are remarkably similar over four months, discrediting lockdown-pushers

  1. Federalist says:

    Hail, excellent post as usual. It’s nice to know that not everyone is crazy. (Almost everyone but not everyone).

    It worry that for many people, the only takeaway from the first graph would be that the per capita death rate for Sweden is higher than for the U.S.

    Do you think the U.S. will suffer more deaths going forward relative to Sweden since the virus got started earlier in Europe?

    Forgive me if you explained and I missed it, but how were deaths calculated? Was it just corona-positive deaths or was there an attempt to estimate deaths actually caused by the virus.

    What do you make of the apparent recent increase in coronavirus cases in the U.S. Maybe it’s a regional thing. I know Texas and Florida are going backwards in terms of reimposing restrictions that had been lifted. It’s frustrating that the media and The Powers That Be seem to be pushing for a second wave and continued/increased restrictions.

    • Hail says:

      It worry that for many people, the only takeaway from the first graph would be that the per capita death rate for Sweden is higher than for the U.S.

      Some of the most alarmist figures on the pro-Panic side, at the critical period in March, assured us that anywhere that avoided lockdown would have a per capita death rate tens of times higher than those that embraced Lockdown-ism. More than two hundred thousand dead for the year in Sweden instead of the usual 90,000-or-so.

      Now, after months of observed/real/in-hand data, we see that nothing even close to that occurred. Just as key anti-Panic figures have been saying for a long time, most places went through the epidemic cycle without regard to their response policy. The two curves, US and Sweden, are very similar.

      A combination of the “Sweden Reality vs. Imperial College Projections” graph with with the “Sweden vs. USA” graphs would make this point. If those were all graphed together, you wouldn’t be able to see any difference whatsoever between Sweden and the USA; the Corona-Death Prediction curves would tower over both.

      I’d say no rational actor would have caved into media-led lockdown demands (economic destruction and much else) if it meant “maybe slightly fewer flu deaths.” They were dealing with a millions-of-deaths fantasy scenario which was recklessly released, and soon it moved past a Rubicon of rational debate.

    • Hail says:

      “how were deaths calculated?”

      In Sweden it is all those who are coronavirus-positive at death. It’s harder to say for some parts of the US, with some reports of “presumed COVID cases” being counted without being tested.

      The way around any corona-death inflation is of course to go directly to all-cause mortality (with the caveat of places at peak-panic time that were experiencing Lockdown-induced excess deaths). We do see all-cause mortality significantly above the baseline in the US from very late March to about late May, almost exactly the same period as in Sweden (see the EuroMOMO graph). In the US, all-cause mortality has seemingly been back in the normal range for all of June and probably some of late May. Final data for June won’t be available for weeks.

      The lesson any way you approach it: There was no big difference between Lockdown and No Lockdown over this one flu virus. All the epidemic curves pushed their way through as they always do (see also Part VIII); the real difference was that this time country after country fell to a Panic Pandemic.

  2. More Re-Panic news today: Williams College has announced that there will be no fall sports, the second NESCAC* school to do so. This almost certainly means that the rest of NESCAC will follow suit.
    My wife works in higher ed- she has a lofty post in the hierarchy of a reasonably prestigious east coast liberal arts college, and, if what I’m hearing is accurate, there is NO recognition among the movers and shakers of America’s colleges that the Kung-Flu is over- they are deep into doubling down. I’m at a loss to explain it- Corona Chanas a cult is the only thing that comes close- but the data is there for anyone to see, yet no one in our elite classes is even bothered to look.

    Even if we had NO data, what do our eyes tell us? That this is a nasty flu if your old, compromised, or both? How many Americans, do you think, actually know someone who’s died, or even been sick In the last three months. Damn few is my guess. Yet we’re STILL going apeshit.

    This guy, Tony Heller (never heard of him before today) nails your argument quite well, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqUwpqjG_j

    * New England Small College Athletic Conference

    • Hail says:

      “the movers and shakers of America’s colleges that the Kung-Flu is over- they are deep into doubling down.

      I’m at a loss to explain it- Corona Chanas a cult is the only thing that comes close- but the data is there for anyone to see, yet no one in our elite classes is even bothered to look”

      GAnderson, many thanks for this and your regular comment-updates.

      It’s disappointing. It’s not as surprising as it might otherwise be when we realize that the pro-Panic coalition has a perceived interest in continuing this (their interests are partly irrational-panic, but include a grab-bag of other interests and things), and has total control.

      I remember in early March, before I got a handle on just how wrong the pro-Panic was on the evidence, feeling there was something really unhealthy going on, not related to a flu virus but to the Panic. I told myself the then-rapidly-escalating Panic would be over by April 1. These early indications that it won’t even be close to over by September 1 are just bizarre. I wouldn’t have believed it in early March.

    • Hail says:

      Thanks for the link to the Tony Heller video. Everything he says sounds right. He puts the Corona-Panic arc together like a synopsis of a dystopian sci-fi novel or film, and one with a rather weak (absurd) plot. (I can already hear the people of the future laughing at us.)

      I don’t know who Tony Heller is, but I see the presentation’s opening slide has “Pulling back the Curtain on Junk Science — realclimatescience.com.” I assume he is associated with, or runs, that website. And so it is that add a tally to the anti-Panic side for a Climate Change Skeptic.

      The commenter refl, writing in the “Corona as Religious Cult” post here last month, proposed that there were predecessor cults to the Corona-Cult, some of them even civic cults (as Corona became) or quasi-civic cults. Refl pointed to climate change as a possible predecessor quasi-civic-cult. I have never really taken interest in the pro- vs. anti-climate change debate, but as for social movement dynamics, there is a good point here.

      By chance, today on Youtube the video I was watching ended and a Dec. 2009 interview with Thomas Sowell came up on autoplay. I ended up listening to the interview. Sowell and the host at one point talk about global warming (lately re-branded as climate change). It was an eerie few minutes from 10.5 years ago, because replace a detail here and a word there and they were describing (one plank of) the Corona-Panic. (See interview here; the relevant section starts at 29:55 and goes a few minutes; see if you don’t see how much what they’re saying applies to Corona-Panic.)

      I have been meaning to write a post collecting thoughts on what pre-existing social energies aligned under the pro-Panic coalition, in Feb./March, and what under the anti-Panic coalition (forming later; lost the initiative early). I think people will be studying it for years and years to come. The cases of these kinds of “predecessor cults” has a role, if not in direct chain then certainly in outline of how these movements work in our era.

  3. Thank you, Mr. Hail, for another great essay or really, an expose, one might say, as people need to be EXPOSED to some truth and perspective. I like the 4 good graphs, along with your images for fun. I have tried to find a graph like your 4th (last one) for the US. I guess I could make one with data from a table, but I am truly miffed that it has not been any easy thing for me to dig up on the world wide freakin’ internet.

    I know the shape of the curve of cumulative deaths is very similar, just from looking at total US deaths (FROM/WITH) the Kung Flu, even though I’ve only been caring enough to look at them for a month or so. (That is simply so I can see this phantom “resurgence”.) Ron Paul has new column debunking this resurgence, BTW, and I may mention my opinion on the early results of this un-intended(?) experiment later today on my blog*.

    Two minor corrections, Mr. Hail: “… deaths are about the mushroom in Sweden!” in 1st paragraph after the “Sweden was right…” header. Obviously the “the” should be “to”, but it does indeed make sense the other way – I didn’t know the Swedes were into psychedelics so much. Also between the two graphs of “All-cause mortality”, “Weeks 24 an 25:” should be “…and 25” I know that is very picky, but you have such a great presentation that I figure you may want to fix those. (For my site I know I make the error of “and” and “an”, along with missing commas and homonym switches all the time.)

    Great stuff. I wish Americans would all at least get a chance to see graphs like this from the Infotainment they enjoy, but that’s not likely. There’s too much invested in this thing.

    .

    * Sorry, readers and commenters (both of you on here so far!), but I’ll start posting again shortly

    • Hail says:

      Thanks; here is the one I think you mean:

      The Media is Lying About the ‘Second Wave’,”
      written by Ron Paul / June 29, 2020.

      Excellent article.

      Ron Paul is now truly in old age (b.1935; turning 85 this summer) but has more sense (an/or courage) than seemingly every leader we have. (I still don’t know how many of the politicians pushing the charade are true-believers and how many are deeply cynical Corona-Demagogues who know the truth but don’t care.)

      Ron Paul has clearly been willing to consume Corona-Skeptic and anti-Panic material, reflected in that article. The evidence is all on our side. That he leads his article with an attack on the media also shows he knows what’s really going on.

      • Hail says:

        I see Peak Stupidity has commentary today on the Ron Paul article.

        Do we have any indication Ron Paul reads comments to his articles at Unz? I always wonder.

        • Mr. Hail, I think guys like Ron Paul and Pat Buchanan, both syndicated columnists published on unz, don’t have the time or inclination to go specifically to that one site out of hundreds and maybe thousands that publish their columns. I wish they would, mind you, but Ron Paul is involved in many projects (at 85 y/o – good on him!) and Pat Buchanan puts out an occasional book still. He probably gives speeches here and there.

          If they wanted to read comments for occasional entertainment or feedback, many of the other sites on which they are published have comment sections too.

          Mrs. Michelle Malkin is also widely syndicated and has her columns on unz now. I was extremely surprised that Mr. Unz started her column there EXACTLY at the time that this Kung Flu panic was at it craziest (other than now, I guess). See, she is entirely anti-panic, and her first few columns that appeared on unz were on that subject. Mr. Unz must just have been in skim-mode again! That was slightly O/T, but I wanted to point out that Michelle Malkin wrote some comments back, even to me, but I don’t think she is keeping this up.

          That was a long answer, Mr. Hail, but my guess would be no, just based on these high-level pundits’ time constraints.

    • Hail says:

      “I have tried to find a graph like your 4th (last one) for the US. I guess I could make one with data from a table, but I am truly miffed that it has not been any easy thing for me to dig up on the world wide freakin’ internet.”

      If you mean this one:

      As I realized while writing my reply to Federalist above, the US and Sweden curves would be about the same.

      The way I graphed the first graph was corona-deaths/10 million pop./day, and conveniently that 10m is almost the same as Sweden’s actual population (10.4m). Long story short, if the USA’s were converted to per capita and placed on the same graph, there would be no visible difference between the US and Sweden curves. They would overlap. The Prediction curves would tower over both.

  4. Mr. Hail- I posted another comment that seems to have disappeared

  5. Pingback: Against the Corona Panic, Part XIV: Total all-cause mortality data in Europe confirms Wuhan-Coronavirus comparable in magnitude to flu waves of the 2010s; Panic and lockdowns fully discredited | Hail To You

  6. Another NESCAC domino falls- no sports at Amherst this fall. Also, “”Tall Deval” Baker has decreed that anyone coming into MA from outside New England, New York and New Jersey must self quarantine for 14 days. I assume interstate rioters are excused from this requirement.

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